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Passer au contenu

De nombreux commentaires en ligne, et même certains articles de presse, affirment que le président a destitué Marie Yovanovitch de son poste d'ambassadrice en Ukraine parce qu'elle a participé à ses efforts pour reprendre une enquête sur Burisma.

Ce n'est pas vrai. La raison réelle de la révocation de l'ambassadeur est bien pire.

Lors de l'appel téléphonique de juin entre les présidents des États-Unis et de l'Ukraine, M. a qualifié l'ambassadeur Yovanovith de "mauvaise nouvelle". Il a également dit l'avoir rencontrée. Comment ces deux choses peuvent-elles être vraies? Je trouve crédible que le président la rencontre ou, s’il l’a rencontrée, il n’avait aucun souvenir d’elle. L'Ukraine n'avait aucun intérêt pour lui lors de sa nomination. La mauvaise étiquette vient de ce que d'autres personnes ont dit récemment au président à son sujet, en particulier, qu'elle était ouvertement et vocalement anti-Trump.

Il n'y a aucune preuve dans les médias sociaux ou la presse que Yovanovitch a même une opinion sur le président. En fait, les gens qui la connaissaient en Ukraine l'ont décrite comme «très, très réservée», le genre de diplomate qui a pris soin de ne jamais parler de politique américaine. Yovanovitch a été conseillée de tweeter quelque chose de pro-Trump pour sauver son emploi, et.

Il semble probable que Marie Yovanovitch soit fidèle au président actuel, certainement pas la façon dont il perçoit la loyauté. La loyauté envers un président n'a pas de sens pour quelqu'un qui a servi plus de trente ans au service extérieur.

Le président a cru qu'elle était une mauvaise nouvelle car Rudy Giulani lui a dit qu'elle l'était. Yovanovitch a déclaré qu'elle avait très peu de contacts avec Giulianai lorsqu'il se trouvait en Ukraine pour mener sa propre enquête sur les accusations de Burisma-Biden. Il a préféré obtenir des informations détaillées de l'ancien procureur général Viktor Shokin, qui a été licencié après les pressions de la majeure partie de l'Europe et le soutien bipartite à la pression américaine, que le vice-président de l'époque, Joe Biden, a prononcé dans un discours devant le Parlement ukrainien. Shokin a parlé de sa position anti-corruption, mais il était largement admis qu'il était au moins aussi corrompu que les autres. Par exemple, il n'a jamais réussi à traduire en justice un cas de corruption.

L'activité la plus visible de Yovanovitch tandis que l'ambassadeur en Ukraine encourageait les efforts de lutte contre la corruption. Elle a tenu des réunions dans le but de permettre aux enquêteurs sur la corruption de se rencontrer et de réseauter. Lors de son audition de confirmation, elle a déclaré au Comité sénatorial des relations étrangères que la promotion de la société civile en Ukraine serait une priorité. Cela correspond-il parfaitement à la façon dont le président a décrit sa motivation, sa préoccupation face à la corruption, de suspendre l'aide militaire à l'Ukraine?

En revanche, il semble que le président ait cru qu'elle interférait avec ses intérêts en Ukraine. Il semble qu'elle n'ait été que marginalement au courant des efforts de Rudy Giuliani, que M. T appelle une enquête anti-corruption.

Giulianai, à son tour, a obtenu sa désinformation sur Yovanovitch de deux «entrepreneurs» de la région, Lev Parnas et Igor Fruman. Il semble, sur la base d'informations limitées, que leur plan visant à accaparer le marché de la production de gaz naturel en Ukraine repose sur la corruption. Il semble que la lutte contre la corruption Yovanovich les ait suffisamment effrayés qu'ils ont dit à un partenaire potentiel de l'entreprise de la faire licencier faisait partie de leur plan. Parnas et Fruman sont les deux personnes qui viennent d'être arrêtées pour avoir violé les lois interdisant les contributions étrangères aux élections américaines.

Le vrai scandale est que les gens à la recherche de leurs propres objectifs corrompus ont réussi à convaincre un président américain de congédier l'ambassadeur anti-corruption qu'ils considéraient comme une barrière. Soyez parfaitement clair sur les boutons que vous devez appuyer pour influencer mr t, et ils ont montré à quel point il est facile de l'influencer. En tant que Mordecai C. Jones, le personnage joué par George C. Scott dans le film de 1967 Flim Flam Man, a dit: "vous trichez un honnête homme."


Une partie notable des mémoriaux du membre du Congrès Elijah Cummings était un discours sincère en son honneur par son collègue de la Chambre Mark Meadows, républicain de Caroline du Nord. Meadows a parlé avec éloquence des vertus de son ami.

En d'autres termes, au mépris de la tendance générale parmi les politiciens, ces deux hommes, très différents, ont formé une profonde amitié. Malgré des partis politiques et des points de vue différents, sans doute en désaccord avec les principaux points de politique, ils ont tout de même trouvé des raisons de s'aimer.

Il n'y a rien de mal à établir une amitié avec une personne d'un point de vue politique différent. Le Congrès compte 535 personnes qui travaillent en étroite collaboration. Meadows et Cummings ont travaillé ensemble sur un comité. Ils ont passé beaucoup de temps ensemble, ils ont trouvé la base d'une amitié.

"Nous ne nous associons tout simplement pas avec eux." Lorsque vous le dites ainsi, il y a un écho d'un passé ségrégué. Non seulement la ségrégation raciale, mais aussi ne pas s'associer avec des personnes qui fréquentent la mauvaise église, ont la mauvaise ascendance. Cela semble juste faux, n'est-ce pas?

C'est faux.

Le comportement des personnes civilisées consiste à reconnaître que les opinions politiques font partie de qui vous êtes, mais pas toutes. Les gens sont composés de nombreuses parties, des préférences pour la musique, des goûts et des aversions alimentaires, des événements sportifs dont ils jouissent et de ce qui les intéresse. Vous pouvez aimer la personne sans trouver ses pensées agréables.

Comparez comment nous avons accepté l'amitié de Meadows avec Cummings avec une autre histoire, juste une semaine plus tôt. Ellen Degeneres a été montré à la télévision assis dans une boîte de luxe du stade en regardant les Cowboys de Dallas jouer au football contre les Packers de Green Bay. Assise sur la chaise voisine était une personne qu'elle connaissait et avec laquelle il était déjà ami, George W. Bush. Twitter est devenu, euh, bizarre. À son crédit, une Ellen sans excuse a déclaré qu'elle avait beaucoup d'amis, dont certains avaient des opinions politiques correspondant aux siennes. “When I say, be kind to one another, I don’t only mean the people that think the same way that you do. I mean be kind to everyone.”

Liberal Hollywood was prominent in delivering criticism toward Ellen.

I have prejudices about who’s to blame for the incivility running around these days. This episode shows me my prejudices are just that – prejudices. I’m wrong. It turns our we’re all uncivil. As much as I’d like to trace the origin of our polarization to a particular political sub-movement, we all tend toward less politeness with people we disagree with than with people we agree with. No one viewpoint can boast to be right all the time.  We’re all too good at dismissing another’s viewpoint without slowing down to consider what we should be learning from that person.

We need to fix this. It’s part of the violence in our country and it’s part of why the government doesn’t get as much done as we’d like.

I’m going to start by re-examining my prejudices.


While the media of all types spins their stories and use language intended to make the story more dramatic, I happen to think I see more egregious examples in the right-leaning media. Consider, for example a recent opinion piece posted on the Fox News web site by David Bossie, President of Citizens United and a Deputy Campaign Manager for the Donald Trump election effort in 2015-16.

The article is titled, “Baseless Trump impeachment inquiry by desperate Democrats make dramatic flip-flop.” Neither “baseless” nor “desperate,” words which claim a specific character for the investigation and its participants, are further supported in the article. They are stated as though fact and receive no further examination, while in the same web server Fox’s Judge Nap writes proof of impeachable offenses is “plain to see.” The extraneous adjectives in the title serve to forecast the tone the reader will experience in the body of the article.

The article begins in the same vein, using the adjective “fraudulent” to describe the impeachment investigation in the opening sentence. The article goes on to state the Democratic leadership conducting the investigation “have ignored historical precedent with their closed-door depositions, lack of due process and disregard of minority party rights in their fervor to attack” the President. It seems to me this impeachment is unique, the first in modern times in which there was not a bundle of evidence prepared in advance by a Special Prosecutor. How would the Special Prosecutor have developed that evidence? By closed-door depositions.

Think of the current, House committee investigation as analogous to the work of the prosecutor. There are sound reasons the witnesses are interviewed in private, most notably so that the witness each contribute evidence uninfluenced by what other witnesses have said.

The author proceeds with expressions such as “no-holds-barred” and “biased impeached investigation.” I have to assume it isn’t a play on words, that he isn’t claiming the investigation is impeached. Rather I assume the author meant to say impeachment investigation.

The phrase “illegitimate and anti-democratic coup” appears. Let’s just agree all coups are illegitimate and anti-democratic. I always assumed coups involved more people in uniform, with weapons the usual type of force used to push the leader out. Neither coup nor civil war, both terms I hear mr t’s political defenders use, seem to me something the American people will tolerate.

The center of the article is the announcement that the House will vote in on the rules to be followed as the impeachment proceeds. (They voted about a week ago.) In other words, the House is likely to soon begin public deliberations. During the public debate about articles of impeachment, the House is acting in a role like a grand jury: decide if the evidence supports a charge. Unlike the secret deliberations of a grand jury, this set of deliberations will be done in public.

The author claims “Democrats seized by Trump Derangement Syndrome are folding under pressure,” the House vote is an acknowledgment the investigation has been biased  and unfair. I don’t see it that way. I think the Democrats are notifying the House they have the evidence they think they need. They aren’t feeling the pressure to move into open hearings, they feel they can raise the pressure on the President.

Taking as fact his claims the investigation so far has been flawed, the author moves to the next logical step, that all the evidence obtained so far is inadmissible. I doubt a trial procedure specialist would agree. The rights of the accused begin to exist when the accusation is made, with the sole exception of when the accused himself is being interviewed.

The author describes the Democrats “are combining the roles of prosecutor, judge and jury” in the investigation. It seems to me they are fulfilling their Constitutional role as prosecutor. When a jury is empaneled, it will be the full Senate. The Judge will be the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. In contrast, it is odd that the Republicans and the author seem to think the role of Congresspeople affiliated with the President’s party have the primary role of the defense.

The author spends the second half of the article predicting the future. “The American people will find out that there has been no criminal wrongdoing whatsoever by President Trump – much less an impeachable offense.” It was my understanding the Constitution’s wording provides for a political, not a legal process. Acts which are not criminal are still impeachable – take William Jefferson Clinton as an example.

I do agree with the author’s closing thought, but not his exact conclusion. He predicts the voters will consider all that mr t has accomplished and make a decision on whether he should be re-elected. I agree. Bossie thinks America is already convinced and will re-elect because of how badly we’ve treated the President. (Spot polling at Nationals Park during the World Series shows more people booing than cheering. It wasn’t a scientific sampling.) It is my opinion the one thing he needs to be sure of re-election is a flawed Democratic candidate. There are several flawed candidates available.

The candidate for re-election has evident flaws.


I’ve been hearing various politicians and media personalities reciting “no quid pro quo” as steadily as a meditation mantra. (Go ahead, try it: sit comfortably, fully relax, and say “no quid pro quo” slowly out loud for a few minutes. You’ll feel your troubles melt away. Especially effective if you’re anxious about something in your past.) Quid pro quo is not the President’s only problem. As long as there was a quo, he’s still in trouble, even without a quid or a pro.

“You can’t have a quid pro quo with no quo,” mr t reminded us recently using Twitter, the Official Policy Announcement System. Perhaps he learned the expression from Rudy. I find it difficult to believe he already knew the legal expression meaning “this for that.” Quid pro quo is the foundational concept of contract law, a topic mr t shows no sign of understanding. The essential definition of a contract is an agreement to exchange something of value.  Quid, this, is what he would offer, quo, that, is what the other party offered – or was asked to deliver.

In this case, quid or not, the quo alone is enough to get him in trouble.  He’s got it backwards, or course. He admits asking for a quo, but has not conceded a quid, that he offered something.  That is what he meant to say in his tweet.

His real problem is he was asking the leader of a foreign country to take action with the intention it will help with his political needs. With or without quid, offering something of value, soliciting or accepting anything of value from a foreigner (person, company or government) is a violation of Federal election law (52 USC 30121).

I am making the assumption you agree dirt on your election opponent is something of value. The President is currently arguing it is of minimal value.

We’ve heard over and over again, the three requests mr t made himself to the President of Ukraine in that now-infamous telephone call in June: resume the investigation of Hunter and Joe Biden, resume the investigation of Burisma, and find the DNC’s missing e-mail server located somewhere in Ukraine. “Read the call transcript,” he reminds us. It wasn’t a full transcript, but thanks, I have read it. The quo in question was right there in plain sight.

Sending a private citizen to negotiate foreign policy is a violation of the Logan Act (18 USC 953), also known as America’s least-enforced law. Rudy Guliani was doing just that, or maybe not, since it was primarily in service of the current President’s political needs for his re-election efforts. Yes, it is common to appoint someone for a specific task. The line has been crossed when the State Department expresses concern the private citizen seems to be running their own foreign policy for a country, independent of the government.

I can accept the President’s assertion there was no quid pro quo. He’s in deep enough trouble with just the quo he himself made visible.


Continuing a Hallowe’en tradition, I’d like to suggest suitable costumes for the party.

We start, also a tradition, with a shout-out to nurses. I’ve spent time in hospitals and clinics in the last year, and I’ve learned how to recognize angels when I see them. Usually wearing scrubs, they greet you by name, they meet you at your level and address your needs, and they do everything in their power to help your recovery. Nurses rock!

Now for the costume suggestions.

The obvious choice is Sexy William Barr. Everyone knows powerful men are inherently sexy. Power compensates for a lot of age and weight issues. What’s even sexier than a powerful man? A powerful man with a major religious drive to make the nation more like what he wants it to be. Yowzer!

The alternate suggestion is Sexy Betsy DeVos. Powerful women can be sexy too, even more so when they’re completely focused on the profit motive. Costume suggestion: A moneybag full of student loan I.O.U.s.

Bonus:  these two characters aren’t just sexy, they’re also pretty scary.


It is fair to say I’ve been open in my opinion of the, ahem, gentleman who currently occupies the Oval Office. I’d like to see him leave office in a way the nation simply can’t question, which necessarily means a free and fair election with definitive results. I’m not convinced this election result is within reach.

One of the reasons we’ve stayed polarized for so many years is the roughly even split between the adherents to the two poles.  Don’t plan on that changing by much.

Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election. She wasn’t the desirable candidate the leaders of the Democratic Party imagined she could be. The Clinton name came with a load of baggage from Bill’s presidency. It was pretty easy to find faults with the process that made her the candidate. It was pretty easy to find faults with her public persona, e.g. no apparent sense of humor. In other words, she lost the election because voters didn’t vote for her.

I have a theory that the polls never showed how close the election would be because there is a fraction of voters – let’s just guess 3% of them but it might be more – who thought they’d vote for Hillary but had their doubts. Only when actually voting loomed before them did they admit their doubts were certainty, not doubts, voting differently than they’d expected.

I’m expecting to see more of this effect in the upcoming election. The percentage could be higher, varying with the candidate.

In addition to personal issues of the candidate, Hillary in 2016 also faced structural issues. Most prominent is the certainty that some fraction of the voters weren’t ready to elect a woman into the Presidency. There are several women standing for the Democratic nomination, and each of them must recognize they are facing the same offset, the same number of voters who either don’t think a woman can win, or don’t want a female President. (And, yes, there are people who won’t vote for a person they don’t believe they can win.)

The same must be said for a gay man. Pete Buttigieg has to recognize this reality.  Some fraction of the voters not ready for a First Gentleman in the White House when the President is a woman. An even larger fraction aren’t ready for a President who brings his husband.

There are other reasons some voters won’t vote for one or more candidates. There is online discussion of who is too old to run, with Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump all mentioned as someone you won’t still want President four years from now due to age.

With apologies to Cory Booker, there are people who won’t vote for another Black man just yet. Some of them voted for Barack Obama, but think it too soon for another. With apologies to Kamala Harris, a Black woman will likely have even more people who simply won’t vote for her combination of race and gender. If we learned anything from Barak Obama’s election, America is far from reach a post-racist sentiment. Give us another eighty years.

I’ll divide the current batch of candidates into four categories:

  • The ones who are the wrong age, either kind of too old or sure seem too young
  • The ones with some characteristic, gender, orientation, race, keeping them from getting votes
  • The ones who are pretty darned wonkish, too much like Hillary (with apologies to Elizabeth Warren, America really doesn’t like smart people, especially not smart women)
  • The ones we hardly know

Any of these is a reason they might not get the number of votes needed for an election outcome in their favor.

The incumbent is going to win pretty close to half the votes in the next election. The election will be decided by a few percentage points.  The challenge for any party interested in unseating the current incumbent President is to bring forward a candidate who has polling numbers showing them ahead of the incumbent greater than the number who will let their doubts prevail when voting, but not when answering poll questions.

In other words, to be really confident of winning, the eventual nominee needs to poll with a 3% to 10% advantage over the incumbent, depending on what’s wrong with them.

Good luck.


Set aside for a moment whether the President’s current actions are worthy of impeachment. The problem the Democrats of the House of Representatives must address first is how they look in the pursuit.

The first handicap is the Mueller investigation. After two years of investigation with an endless stream of breathless conjecture in the media of just how bad it was going to be for Our Dear Leader, the way the report was completed and presented left it easily spun into “complete and total exoneration.” The nature of how that investigation was covered in the media rather spoiled any dramatic potential.

The way the media handled the Mueller investigation qualifies them to be called the Lame Stream media. They’re down in that muddy hole now, it’s up to them to figure out how to climb out. I suppose we shouldn’t be surprised by how many ordinary people, clearly having not read the report, claim they are quoting from it to support one extreme view or the other.

Plenty of Democrats discussed impeachment before the latest episode became commonly known. Representative Rashida Tlaib campaigned for her seat on impeachment, and I understand her re-election campaign has tee shirts on the same theme.

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The Chairs of the House Committees currently investigating, for example Representative Adam Schiff of California, were in the forefront of pursuing the Mueller investigation for its potential to lead to impeachment. With the Mueller report not clearly showing the American public grounds for impeachment, the timing of the Ukraine story is both fortuitous and inconvenient. With this President, we have every reason expect cause for still another investigation, but it does look like the Democrats are just moving on to the next thing to try. As the President quoted Fox and Friends, we could believe they are just bringing another accusation off the bench.

So far, the alternative narrative is reasonably successful, that all of this is just Democrats, angry their Hillary didn’t win in 2016, trying to undo the election.

The next scandal, hot and juicy, had been greeted by a vocal audience already dismissing it as the next straw be grasped. The majority of Americans, their sense of outrage well-dulled by the parade of scandals since the election, have a more muted response.

The new scandal started its life with a credibility problem. Like it or not, the timing, the context of the two years of investigations before the new scandal, makes it easy to believe them Demon-Rats are all just making this stuff up.

The challenge before the House investigators is to make this play out differently from the Mueller investigation. I’d like to suggest they must move more quickly, which they seem eager to do. They should also consider bringing a complete case to the American public. Dripping out the evidence as they collect it looks like they’re trying to just smear the President. (Hint: don’t worry about making him look bad in the short term, he’ll do that very well on his own.) Releasing that one diplomat’s text messages just seemed odd, it was raw evidence containing a few items of interest. I would think that’s the kind of evidence you hold onto until you write your report.

If the Democratic Members of Congress want a majority of Americans to accept this new set of accusations, they need to manage public perceptions. Managing how the investigation looks is central to its credibility. Failing to show the independent voter a relatively unbiased origin of the charges against the President means he has a chance of convincing enough of them that he’s just being harassed.  He can claim his Presidency has been dogged by Witch Hunts, simply because those entrenched Democrats don’t like him draining the swamp like he promised.

Democrats must take care to assure mr t can’t claim he’s being treated the way the Republican-led Senate treated his predecessor or the way the Republican-majority House treated his election opponent.